For a bit it felt like we (dynasty community, Fantasy analysts, pundits, draft experts) were on the same page (elite skills and body control, some light concern about top end speed) - top 3 WR. Does anyone worry about those players regressing? That was used against Brown at the time, but things hit with. And that's why it wouldn't bother me at all if you opt to go with Chase over Harris at the 1.01 spot in single-quarterback rookie drafts. Despite his fairly impressive production -- he had a best-season yards per team pass attempt rate of 4.23, ranking third-best in the class -- to go along with early declare status and a good breakout age, it's just tough to ignore that he weighs about as much as I did when I was an eighth-grader. Michael Carter II is now officially a Day 3 back, and that doesn't bode well for his career success in fantasy football. JJ Zachariason of Late-Roun. JJ Zachariason: East Coast Dad. Post-Published Note: After more thought, Jaylen Waddle has been bumped down into Tier 4. You know that whole "first-round wide receivers with a negative stat score have consistently busted in my model" thing that I talked about with Jaylen Waddle? George Pickens feels buried in Pittsburgh, but Diontae Johnson is a free agent next spring, and if Pickens recaptures his 2019 form, it won't matter who he's playing with. Dynasty Pros Currently Online. He dedicates 25 pages to explain fundamentals and the process, 15-30 pages for each position (concluding each one with "your 2022 plan of attack"), 35 pages of player takes, and then his rankings. Host of the award . Arnold Palmer Invitational: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations, Daily Fantasy Golf: The Heat Check Podcast for The Arnold Palmer Invitational, FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for Wednesday 3/1/23, 3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 2/28/23, 3 Daily Fantasy NHL Stacks for Tuesday 2/28/23, 5 NBA FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Tuesday 2/28/23, 3 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on Tuesday 2/28/23, NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 2/28/23: Targeting 3 Totals on Tuesday, College Basketball Betting Guide: Tuesday 2/28/23, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 2/28/23, NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 2/28/23, The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, Wide Receiver Prospects Who Produced Like Studs. Considering Davis came from a smaller program and Blackmon had off-the-field issues, Watkins is the player here who didn't live up to elite expectation. . I see the clearest path to long-term starting roles for Jeremy Ruckert and Daniel Bellinger, but there's no shame in panic-picking Isaiah Likely. I havent bought it yet but will soon. 2009-2019 numberFire, Inc. Certain headlines thanks to Rotoworld. I pre-ordered mine for $20 (now $25) but I think it was worth it and you get to support a person you enjoy. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 4Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 3Post-Draft Positional Rank: 3Tier: 2. If not, just know that targets are earned and are a sticky stat. He has a complete production profile (aside from not being an early-declare receiver), and his prospect score in my model is well above average for a fourth-round pick. Like, I like Rashod Bateman a lot. That's even truer of traditional pocket passers like we have with, Jones had a monster final season at Alabama, and his profile aligns closely with. More so than any other position, running backs make up the far majority of any season's league-winners.And, typically, you're going to have to pay up to acquire them. You have to have an open mind when analyzing fantasy football. -- it's not all bad. That being said, it is helpful to have everything in one place to access at your fingertips, and everything in the book makes sense to include. or save 10% if you pay annually. Among the 24 running backs who were invited to the combine (yes, I know the combine didn't happen, but they still had an invite list), Harris ranked third in best-season total yards per team play, sixth in best-season reception share, and fourth in best-season total touchdown share. He obviously loves what he does and he's far from a dick. A lot of the content is covered in his podcast. What I really like about it is it doesn't tell you who's good and who's not (according to the analyst) it shows you the process JJ takes when making his rankings as well. Jets WR Garrett Wilson. RESEARCH & ANALYSIS of statistical trends within professional sports is having a massive impact on the game of fantasy football. The biggest faller from these pre- to post-draft rankings is Tylan Wallace. There are four wide receivers who could easily be placed in this eighth overall spot -- I'm just opting to put, The main reason I'm high on Marshall -- and likely higher than the consensus -- is because he's one of the only earlier-round wide receivers who checks nearly every alpha wide receiver box. That's translated into 50 fewer wide receiver targets than any other team. Or, at least, there could be competition. The game is filled with variance -- unpredictable things happen all the time. Running Back. He was my pre-draft WR2 for a reason. Not only do tight ends usually not do all that well as first-year players, but he'll be, at best, the fourth or fifth option in the Pittsburgh passing attack. I purchased it as a huge JJ fan. That's not ideal. For better context of how high Dotson and Watsons TD/Target rate was last year, Davante Adams (who led the league with 14 touchdowns) scored on a 7.8% rate and Travis Kelce (second in the league with 12 touchdowns) scored on 7.9% of his targets. But -- but! Our nightmares came true with this running back class, with just four backs being drafted on Day 1 and Day 2. For example, the record holder for rushing yards in a season at the quarterback position, Lamar Jackson, has four of the top 14 rushing seasons all-time for quarterbacks and has never finished worse than QB8 in points per game in his four starting seasons. Copyright 2006-2022 Fantasy Sports Enterprises, LLC. And the air horns. He had a reception share of almost 11% during his final collegiate season, his yards per team play was well above average compared to other backs in the class, and his size-speed combo -- he ran a . Thanks to everyone who's supported, and I'm looking forward to making things better every step of the way. Host of the award-winning Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast &@LiveTheStreamFF. Print. Team philosophies aren't static. Just saw this post and genuinely appreciate all the feedback. A couple of things, 1. Both Burks and London are positioned to deliver strong rookie production even if they aren't immediately stars. On the other hand, White's receiving profile gives him RB1 upside if he can eventually work into an Aaron Jones-type role. In the slot as a Freshman and Sophomore, though, St. Brown competed production-wise with teammate Michael Pittman Jr., and that helped give him a high-end breakout age. Insiders will have access to everything Explorers get, but they also will have access to Q&A livestreams with JJ (at least once a month out of season and twice a week during), rest-of-season rankings and tiers (updated weekly in-season), and rankings and tiers for the upcoming week of games. #packers #shorts, The Dynasty Grind: QB Value SZN (also the combine or something), EVERYTHING You Need For the 2023 NFL Combine | Dynasty Fantasy Football. Insider. It's hard to remember an NFL Draft that did so little to help the fantasy football world. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/APre-Draft Positional Rank: N/APost-Draft Positional Rank: 3Tier: 9. He's got a high-upside arm and has mobility, but not to the degree of a Lance or Fields. I've seen posts in the Ratcliffe thread sh*tting on this concept and I have no idea why. Moore landed with the Jets, and some may view that as a bad spot to go. Is Drake London undervalued in dynasty leagues right now? In the image at the bottom of this article I have a versus ADP column that compares my overall ranks to this ADP. I'm a bit skeptical of Zamir White, but I'm not looking to be completely out on a big back with speed, particularly one who could be a clear-cut early-down starter by this time next year. No one knows what'll happen there, but that would at least bring the rookie Rodgers some production as soon as Year 1. If you're unfamiliar with JJ's work, it will change how you think about fantasy. Find out more, Have questions or need some help? 2009-2019 numberFire, Inc. Certain headlines thanks to Rotoworld. Fields receiving options were awful last year and objectively could have been ranked among the worst in the history of organized football. With Late-Round Fantasy Football, he wont be handing you a list of rankings and walking away. He competed well with. Tolbert solidified his standing in 2022 dynasty rookie rankings at the NFL Combine with 10 hands, a 76 3/8 wingspan, 4.49 40-yard dash, and 36 vertical jump. You can support pahowdy belowif you, like: Youtube: youtube.com/c/PeterHowardPahowdy. . And elite wide receivers can transform an offense. If I have multiple second-round rookie picks I would be fine sending out an offer a second for Burks, who did have an impressive 17.6% target share as a rookie, but that is the only instance I would do so. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 2Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 2Post-Draft Positional Rank: 2Tier: 1. You can support pahowdy belowif you, like: Youtube: youtube.com/c/PeterHowardPahowdy. You'll receive a spreadsheet each week with the same information JJ looks at for his analysis, along with season-long and dynasty rankings. Being buried on a depth chart in the short term isn't a plus, either. He can play all over the field, too, and be a complete matchup nightmare. The difference is that the Titans weren't this run-heavy, and there was a good chance we were going to see a quarterback change. Javonte Williams landed in Denver after the Broncos traded up to get him, and while it may not seem like a great landing spot, it's really not so bad. Part of the trepidation around him is how he scored those fantasy points. Click here to learn more! We shouldn't expect a whole lot from Pat Freiermuth as an NFL rookie. Instead of buying low on a player like Burks, Id rather conserve those assets and buy high on another player. He also lays out his own approach at the position and lists a few . Dynasty Crossroads Episode 258 JJ Zachariason. You'll also get priority for mailbag questions for The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast's weekly mailbag episode. 3. The story for Powell is about situation. There've only been six players in the model -- which dates back to 2006 -- with that high of a prospect score: Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, and Calvin Johnson. YouTube Video VVUxOTFQNURweDRGeFloQ1NFdjFLRTZnLjNkcHNnQ1NRU2Rr, YouTube Video VVUxOTFQNURweDRGeFloQ1NFdjFLRTZnLnFxTzF4ZVZ6NHBn, YouTube Video VVUxOTFQNURweDRGeFloQ1NFdjFLRTZnLjlDdkFrZ3BHTks0, YouTube Video VVUxOTFQNURweDRGeFloQ1NFdjFLRTZnLjhlTjNQcDdpUm5J, and the list is filled with bust after bust after bust. The most wide open wide receiver depth chart in the NFL is in Detroit. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 15Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 11Post-Draft Positional Rank: 10Tier: 7. Dynasty Pros. Rondale Moore rounds out this giant Tier 4, staying in the same position he was in pre-draft. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 16Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 1Post-Draft Positional Rank: 1Tier: 6. That type of rushing production will give him a little more leeway to develop as a passer in the NFL. pahowdy writes for dynastyleaguefootball.com. I'll side with first-round running back history here, though, and continue to view Etienne as a high-end fantasy football asset. In fact, his adjusted yards per attempt against top-50 defenses last season was second-best in this draft class. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 30Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 9Post-Draft Positional Rank: 6Tier: 8. Hes met lifelong friends, won Fantasy Sports Writers Association awards, and worn gym shorts (and sometimes gorilla costumes) nearly every day of his nine-year career as a fantasy analyst. Draft War Room. We pick out four running backs worth thinking about in your dynasty leagues. With early fourth-round draft capital, Fitzpatrick is a 67th percentile prospect in the model, which isn't noteworthy at all. Season-long 1QB rankings and tiers (May through August), Season-long superflex rankings and tiers (May through August), Dynasty superflex rankings and tiers (monthly), Rest-of-season rankings and tiers (in-season weekly), Weekly positional rankings and tiers (in-season weekly). 11. He wasn't even a top-10 pick. Injury Guide. I like that his opinions and takes are mostly data driven which has helped scratch my nerdy fantasy itch. Customers can subscribe to NBC Sports EDGE+ monthly for $9.99. You'll get the best projections in the business! But, hey, my spreadsheets and I will be wrong plenty. His average depth of target was 361st in college football in limited time last year, but that's also how Purdue used him throughout his collegiate career. Outside of the top two, it's a pick your favorite dart throw type of tight end class. On this week's mailbag episode, JJ rants about Drake London 's dynasty . Najee Harris was at the top of my pre-draft rookie rankings, and then he was selected by the Steelers in Round 1, giving him the best landing spot of any . For Cornell Powell, it has little to do with his analytical profile. Weather info Powered by Dark Sky. Jameson Williams is not likely to produce much as a rookie, but the fact that the Lions traded up to draft him at 12 overall when he tore his ACL in January (!) Late-Round Fantasy Football creator. Dameon Pierce should see opportunity more quickly. But, man, it's hard to ignore this landing spot. That pairs nicely with Kyler Murray, who's ranked in the bottom half of the league in average depth of target in each of his first two seasons. In single-quarterback leagues, we see a big devaluation of quarterbacks. McBride will need to be talented to make an impact, but his prospect profile suggests that he is. I don't see it as probable, but we've seen crazier things happen in Kyle Shanahan's offenses -- especially with players who we peg as speedy, change-of-pace guys, like Raheem Mostert. The. Treylon Burks, Drake London, and Garrett Wilson are good enough prospects that all three are defensible picks as the WR1 in this class. When you get to this point in your rookie draft -- especially this year's rookie draft -- you're looking for some sort of story you can tell about a player that shows that he has upside. JJ is one of the few analysts I've found that clearly and cleanly translates a process into actual, actionable advice on how to beat the market effectively. Seattle doesn't throw to their running backs, so he has little chance of developing as a receiver under the current regime. This is Betting the Spread Week 17! During his breakout Freshman campaign, 91% of his snaps came from the slot according to Pro Football Focus. For a little background, I've been a fantasy football analyst for about 10 years now, getting my start after I published an e-book titled "The Late-Round Quarterback" back in 2012. Waddle doesn't look nearly as good within my wide receiver model. Fantasy football, drafting in particular, is about beating the market. And, unlike Waddle, Toney played four seasons in college. The Ravens run the football efficiently. Get . His production profile wasn't very complete given the journey he went on in college, where he transferred to Oklahoma after playing at a Junior college, and then he was suspended for part of his final season. Better than good. He had one of the best scores of any prospect in my model before last week's event, and he's now a 96th percentile prospect in my model. 2. The DLF Dynasty Podcast #557 . Be competition success in fantasy football professional sports is having a massive impact on the other hand, 's. 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